Back in December 2014, the Department of Energy announced the Redstone Solar Thermal Power Project as a preferred bidder in the Renewable Energy (RE) Independent Power Producers (IPPs) programme Renewables are taking off worldwide: investment is going up, and prices are coming down. Using RE sources creates more jobs and has a lower environmental impact per unit of electricity produced than fossil fuels[5]. Unfortunately, RE does not fit with Eskom’s current business model based on coal-fired power stations. Burning the black stuff pollutes our air, contaminates water, causes respiratory illness, contributes to climate change and is no longer the cheapest option. Coal is not the future of electricity generation, but it looks like Eskom – for self-serving reasons – want to preserve the status quo for as long as they can. It is to their advantage if Eskom suggest that renewables are more expensive and are not suitable for supplying our electricity needs. By doing this, they can motivate to keep coal in the game longer and justify their recent opposition to IPPs. So, in response to these negative sentiments toward RE, let us consider what is actually happening around the world. Let us consider what is possible, and what we can aspire to. Renewable is doable In 2015, Costa Rica supplied 99% of its national electricity demand from renewable sources. For 285 days in a row the grid was entirely supplied by RE[6]. While it is not a first world giant, Costa Rica is still a country of 4.8 million people, which also saw their electricity price drop by 12% due to this extensive use of renewables[7]. Their heavy dependency on hydropower has received some criticism, but the fact remains that it is possible to supply a nation’s electricity needs solely from renewable energy. Furthermore, it can cost less. Uruguay’s population of 3.4 million people now also have cheaper electricity with 95% coming from RE[8]. Remarkably, this dramatic shift happened in less than 10 years, without any government subsidy. No new hydropower has been installed in over 20 years, but investment into wind, solar, biomass and gas now constitutes 15% of the country’s annual GDP. According to Ramón Méndez, Uruguay’s head of climate policy: “What we’ve learned is that renewables is just a financial business”. While the figures from Costa Rica and Uruguay are impressive, and refute the myth that coal or nuclear are necessary for baseload power, let us look at larger economies. In May this year, Portugal provided 100% of its electricity from renewable sources for 4 consecutive days. That is all the business and residential needs of 11 million people for 107 hours straight[9]. On the 15th May, Germany produced 45.5 gigawatts (GW) from just RE when demand was 45.8 GW. This covers 80 million people, and is more than the total electricity needs of South Africa (SA). Studies have shown that it is technically possible to power the planet only using RE[10], and these examples are the first glimpses of the realization of these assertions. This trend of increasing proportions of RE based electricity is spreading across Europe, and SA has better wind and solar resources than many European countries. This movement towards renewables is also explicitly linked to climate change. In SA, it is essential that we continue to expand our national RE programme so that we can reduce our carbon emissions in line with our national mitigation targets. On 9th July 2015, wind power alone provided 140% of Denmark’s electricity demand, and the excess was exported[11]. In the United States, wind capacity has increased 30-fold in the last 15 years, to a total of 75GW[12]. On the solar photovoltaic (PV) front, the global installed capacity last year was 10 times more than the world’s entire solar PV capacity 10 years ago[13]. Think about these for a second. Wind and solar PV are expanding in an exponential way, and it is no surprise that the costs continue to fall as technologies improve. In 2015 alone, China added 15 GW of large scale solar PV[14]. To put this number into context, it is over 3 times the planned capacity of Medupi, one of Eskom’s new coal-fired powers station. After 9 years, only one out of 6 units at Medupi is complete, producing 0.8 GW of electricity. So, basically, China’s addition of solar capacity to their grid is currently about 165 times faster than Eskom is adding coal-fired capacity to our grid. Even standardizing for population differences, it is 7 times faster. So, not only are renewables now preferable from a cost and environmental point of view, but they come online much quicker. Closer to home, in Africa, we can see similar patterns. In Rwanda, a single solar PV array completed in 2015[15], now supplies over 6% of the country’s total electricity demand[16]. Testament to the speed of RE deployment, this entire project (from contract signing to grid connection) was completed in less than 1 year. While the 8.5 megawatt (MW) plant at Rwamagana may be small by global standards, it shows just how fast solar initiatives can be constructed even without first world infrastructure. By contrast, in terms of size, the Noor project in Morocco will be the largest concentrated solar power facility on earth when complete[17]. At 580 MW, Noor will provide all the electricity needs for 1.1 million Moroccans. As Mafalda Duarte, the manager of Climate Investment Funds, said: “Morocco is showing real leadership and bringing the cost of the technology down in the process.” While renewables are on the rise, coal is in decline. China, as the world’s largest consumer of energy[18], has reached ‘peak coal’, and its use for electricity generation is decreasing [19]. For a several short periods in May, the United Kingdom generated zero electricity from coal[20]. Since London was the home of the world’s first public coal-fired power station in 1882, this was the first time in 134 years that the UK had not burnt coal for electricity. A turning point has been reached. So across the globe, from the Americas through Europe to China and in Africa, we are seeing signs. Signs of what is possible with RE, and signs of where the future of electricity generation is heading. From these international examples we can answer some important questions. Can RE proved all the electricity needs for millions of people? Yes. Is it essential to burn coal or use nuclear for baseload electricity generation? No. Can electricity from RE cost less than coal or nuclear. Yes. Will our government, as the sole shareholder in Eskom, continue to promote the uptake of RE through the IPPs? Let us hope so. Article written by Richard Halsey – Project 90 Policy and Research team. Image credit: David Clarke References [1] http://www.gov.za/renewable-energy-independent-power-producers-procurement-programme-reippp-financial-close-window-3 [2] http://www.eskom.co.za/news/Pages/Jul28B.aspx [3] http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/eskom-postpones-ipp-signing-with-redstone-20160728 [4] http://www.iol.co.za/business/opinion/is-eskoms-policy-just-trying-to-protect-its-own-turf-2054493 [5] http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/news/green-jobs-debate-should-look-beyond-short-term-benefits-says-ukerc-report.html [6] http://www.ecowatch.com/costa-rica-powers-285-days-of-2015-with-100-renewable-energy-1882135438.html [7] http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/costa-rica-is-cutting-electric-rates-12-because-it-has-so-much-renewable-en [8] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/03/uruguay-makes-dramatic-shift-to-nearly-95-clean-energy [9] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/18/portugal-runs-for-four-days-straight-on-renewable-energy-alone [10] http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf [11] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark-wind-windfarm-power-exceed-electricity-demand [12] http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/wind_installed_capacity.asp [13] http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GSR_2016_KeyFindings1.pdf [14] http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/ [15] http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/article/2015-02-04/185603/ [16] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/23/how-africas-fastest-solar-power-project-is-lighting-up-rwanda [17] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/04/morocco-to-switch-on-first-phase-of-worlds-largest-solar-plant [18] https://yearbook.enerdata.net/#energy-consumption-data.html [19] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/25/china-coal-peak-hailed-turning-point-climate-change-battle [20] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/13/uk-energy-from-coal-hits-zero-for-first-time-in-over-100-years
